The price of oil has fallen by 25% since early October

The prices of black gold fell in a few weeks, with Brent dropping from $ 85 to $ 62 a barrel. Prices in the resorts are going down and will continue to fall.
The situation is paradoxical. In France, the challenge is in full swing. After a first week-end of strong mobilization, the yellow vests want to block Paris Saturday, hoping to obtain a gesture of the government, which does not stop confirming the increase of the taxes on the fuels on January 1st. And during this time, prices in the resorts fall.

In one month, the liter of diesel decreased from 1.52 to 1.46 €. For the unleaded 95 E10, the decline is even more marked with a decline of 1.53 to 1.43 €. The price of gasoline is also at its lowest since March. And as the decline continues, it will soon be at its lowest since the end of 2017!

This is explained by a dive of oil prices. In early October, the barrel of Brent (European reference) was $ 82. Yesterday, although slightly up from yesterday, it was $ 62.50. That is a decline in less than two months of 26%! The good news is that as there is a gap between oil prices and fuel prices, fuel prices will continue to fall in the coming days and weeks.

It may seem surprising to see oil continue to decline, with contextual elements that seemed unfavorable, starting with US trade sanctions against Iran. But the United States has dropped the ballast, allowing Iran to export oil to eight countries, including China and India. In addition, black gold production has increased in the USA and Russia. Supply is abundant and at the same time there is a fear of falling demand, the trade war that the United States and China may be slowing down growth.

Saudi Arabia, for its part, has announced its willingness to lower its exports. But she could quickly forget this decision to keep a low profile after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, assassinated last month at the Saudi Arabian consulate in Turkey. Donald Trump had provided amazing support to Saudi Arabia, writing on Twitter “the United States intends to remain an unshakeable partner of Saudi Arabia”. But it is not by chance: to maintain the alliance with the US, Saudi Arabia should therefore meet the requirements of the American president, who had asked Riyadh to keep the price of oil at “reasonable levels”.

These geopolitical affairs are therefore filling up in France a little less expensive. It’s always taken as Christmas approaches. Of course, a 25% drop in oil does not lead to a 25% drop in the prices of unleaded and diesel fuel, because these are primarily taxes. Taxation represents a little over 60% of the price of a liter of fuel. The product itself represents only 30% of the final price.

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