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"A military adventure, a news, will allow Erdogan to stay on the political scene"
Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Bursa (Turkey), August 4, 2019. AP

Tribune. Thanks to the alliance with the Western coalition in the war against the Islamic State (IS) organization in Syria, the Kurds have gained notoriety and built a unique governance system. based on equality and sharing. Rojava [Kurdistan syrien] is a unique model. Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan considers what I would call a "young layman democracy" as a threat to her national security and Islamist expansionist policy. Since the invasion of Afrin township in 2018, Mr. Erdogan has never hidden his ambitions to invade Rojava. AT" We have entered Afrin, Djarabulus and Al-Bab and now we will enter the east of the Euphrates. As long as the harassment continues, we can not remain silent ", he said on August 4.

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The motives of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), supported by the far right, have not really changed since Afrin's invasion in 2018. Anti-Kurdish and Arab hatred, intensified by the economic crisis that the Turks have been trying to survive for the last few years, is fueling the grumbling of the population who can no longer provide for themselves. This popular outcry, which is becoming more audible in Turkey, is endangering the very existence of the system built by Mr. Erdogan's AKP. For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it is to save the AKP from disappearing. In twenty years of being in power, the notables of the AKP and the Islamists who support it have become businessmen at the head of an economy sometimes underground. The hard-fought battle to return to Istanbul's mayor's office following the May election slap was a vital one for Erdogan. The loss of this town hall means the opening of the Pandora's box for the AKP. Failing an agreement with Ekrem Imamoglu, new mayor of Istanbul, the days of the AKP would be counted. The Turkish opposition has all the records on the activities of the AKP allowing him to embarrass the majority party in the country. A military adventure, a news, will allow Erdogan to stay on the Turkish political scene until the next presidential election.

Turkey, Prussian state

The Turkish population no longer tolerates the presence of Syrian Arab refugees who "Bite the jobs of the Turks", as it says in the streets of Ankara and Istanbul. In violation of all the international conventions relating to the protection of war refugees, a few thousand refugees have been sent back to Idlib, a city devastated by war, in the Syrian North. Erdogan's goal is to sack one million Syrian refugees in northern Syria, including the autonomous Kurdish administration zone. Erdogan will finally realize the "Arab Belt", the old dream of the 1960s of Ba'ath Arab nationalist parties that have striven to separate the Kurds from Syria from their brothers in Turkey . This "belt" will allow Erdogan to definitively kill the young Kurdish democracy emerging in the region and perfecting the demographic change that it implemented in Afrin by installing the Arab populations of Eastern Ghouta and other Turkoman jihadist factions.